Early Kentucky Derby Contenders- Who is Impressing so Far?

The end of another calendar year means that the attention quickly turns to the biggest horse racing action taking place in the next 12 months. Once again, all eyes in the U.S. will be on the Triple Crown, with the Kentucky Derby kicking off the series at Churchill Downs in early May. 

A talented crop of three-year-olds will line up in the race once again, and many of the leading chances may have not even appeared on track as a two-year-old.  You can find more information here: https://www.twinspires.com/betting-guides/beginners-guide-betting-horse-racing/ 

However, who are the early runners on the Road to the Kentucky Derby that have caught the eye?

Citizen Bull

Bob Baffert looks set to have runners in the Derby in 2025 after relations between the trainer and Churchill Downs have eased in the final months of 2024. 

Therefore, it is no surprise to see one of the top-rated two-year-olds in the U.S. at the head of the Derby betting at this early stage. Citizen Bull has won three from four starts under rules, and has progressed well since stepping up to a mile. He was the two-length winner of the G1 American Pharoah Stakes in October, before following up with a career-best showing in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. 

Despite not being sent off as favourite, the two-year-old looked like the winner from a long way out, and eventually finished just under two lengths clear of stablemate Gaming. A big year could be likely for the runner in 2025.  

Barnes

As one of the most successful trainer’s in Derby history, it isn’t surprising to see Baffert dominant the ante-post betting market for the race. Barnes is one of the most exciting contenders from the Hall of Famer’s stable based on his breeding alone. 

The two-year-old was sired by Into Mischief and is out of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah mare All American Dream. Barnes could hold a an early advantage over the Derby field after already strutting his stuff at Churchill Downs, winning at the home of the Derby on racecourse debut in November when beating Innovator over 5 ½ furlongs. 

Everything suggests that the runner will continue to improve over longer distances, and he could be the one to follow in the early months of prep races in 2025. 

East Avenue 

Brendan Walsh found it hard to hide his disappointment following the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, as his star two-year-old East Avenue failed to fire at Del Mar. Things didn’t go right for the two-year-old throughout the Grade One, and he eventually finished outside of the places when taking ninth of ten, finishing a staggering 13 lengths behind Citizen Bull. 

However, if you were to put a line through that run, he still presents leading claims based on his best efforts in 2024. 

He was an eight-length winner on debut over six furlongs at Ellis Park, before making a pleasing impression over an extended mile at Keeneland when beating Ferocious by a commanding five-length margin in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity. Should still be plenty to come from this runner, and will quickly look to put his Breeders’ Cup disappointment behind him. 

Chancer McPatrick 

Chancer McPatrick is another runner that didn’t have a day to remember in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2024. However, the Chad Brown runner was more proven that most before that effort, winning on all three career starts. 

He was an excellent winner of two races at Saratoga in July and September, with a standout win over seven furlongs seeing him finish just under a length clear of Ferocious. 

That was followed up with a career-best showing at Belmont at the Big A, landing the G1 Champagne Stakes by a two-length margin from Tip Top Thomas. He didn’t fire at Del Mar on his final start of the year, but positives could have still been taken from his finishing effort when taking sixth of ten behind Citizen Bull. 

Admiral Dennis

Brad Cox hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since Mandaloun’s victory following Medina Spirit’s disqualification in 2021. However, the renowned trainer will have a strong squad of horses that will be pointed toward the Derby in 2024, and his runners could be headlined by Admiral Dennis. 

The two-year-old was sired by Constitution and was out of the Union Rags mare Gulf of Coast. He made a decent debut over 6 ½ furlongs at Churchill Downs in September, finishing third behind Big Much. However, he looked to relish going up in distance on his final start of 2024, sprinting well clear of the field over a mile and Churchill Downs to finish clear of Mischievous Time. 

Everything from his pedigree suggests that he looks a certain Derby contender, and in the care of one of the best trainer’s in the U.S., he could be a prominent player in the early season prep races at the start of 2025.